Wednesday, May 17, 2006

Egypt’s Future

I think I should change the name of my blog “Democratic Egypt” because it is an oxymoron. In other words, I am slowly coming to the painful realization that Egypt has a long way to go before becoming a democratic nation and here is why:

1. Egyptians have been always ruled by force. First it was the pharaohs, then the Greeks, then the Romans, then the Arabs, and finally the soldiers of the 1952 military coup. Introducing freedom in the so called 1952 revolution led to chaos and people did not know what to do with their freedom. The soldiers of 1952 had turned this country into a very corrupt and poor place. I do not think our people can afford a change of that caliber until they really know what democracy means. They never did!!!

2. The majority of Egyptians are religious whether they are Muslims or Christians. Imagine if the majority of the American people resembled Jerry Falwell or Pat Robertson! Of course, everyone would want to rule with his/her religion and a civil war would ensue

3. Mubarak had successfully destroyed the secular opposition movement in this country but could not do that with Islamic opposition, represented by the Muslim Brotherhood. Is not it amazing that 2 of the major secular contenders against Mubarak during last election (Dr. Ayman Nour and Noaman Gomaa) were recently jailed? What we have now is a strong opposition front that uses Islam as its central ideology, and of course Islam is allergic to democracy and will not allow it.

4. Egyptians have a high illiteracy rate (70%). The majority of Egyptians cannot read and write and they base their judgments on superstitious Islamic thinking. Can we afford being ruled by these limited individuals?

5. Look every where at the Middle East. When Bush stubbornly insisted to remove Saddam from power, Iraq was transformed into a terrorist haven and a civil war is currently taking place. Also, the Palestinians had had free elections and they elected Hamas leaders, who insist on destroying Israel. At least Mubarak has a strong secular regime and is keeping Islamic fundamentalists under control.

I am very concerned about the latest events in Egypt. I do appreciate those elites who want democracy in Egypt, but they will be all persecuted if Mubarak’s regime is toppled and the Muslim brotherhood took over. Can they look at the big picture? It pains me to say that because I wanted democracy in the Egypt, but I have learned to be more analytical of the situation.

I am proposing the following solution:
Mubarak should step down and let Gamal Mubarak take over. Gamal should then work diligently to achieve the civic society his father failed to make. I think Gamal Mubarak has the potential to be the Egyptian Ataturk and of instilling a modern government in Egypt by continuing to privatize Egypt and open its market to the outside world. Egyptians will benefit if they were more open to the outside world, and the power of fundamentalists, who prey on poor Egyptians, will subside. Gamal also has a strong stance against the Muslim Brotherhood.
I also think that the US administration should then exert pressure on Gamal to allow secular forces in Egypt to take over. He should not oppress these forces as his old fart did. Only then I will have hope in a democratic Egypt
I cannot afford to see Egypt without a strong government as this happened before in Iraq. I know I will be criticized for backing up the despotic regime of Mubarak, but I am extremely anxious about the future of Egypt if this man is to be killed. We do not have a viable alternative since our secular opposition is currently in disarray with no sense of direction or presence in the streets. If Mubarak dies, the Islamists will take over and we will all regret.


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